Understanding the FIFA World Ranking System
The current FIFA World Ranking system, named "SUM," relies on adding or subtracting points won or lost for a game to or from the previous point totals. It was introduced in 2018 and remains the standard for 2025 to provide a more accurate reflection of team strength.
The Calculation Formula
The core algorithm is based on the Elo rating system, modified for football. The formula used is:
- Pbefore: The number of points the team had before the match.
- I: The importance coefficient of the match.
- W: The result of the match (1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss).
- We: The expected result of the match.
1. Match Importance (I)
Not all matches are created equal. A World Cup Final has a much higher impact on ranking than a friendly match.
| Match Type | I Factor |
|---|---|
| Friendly Match (outside International Calendar) | 5 |
| Friendly Match (within International Calendar) | 10 |
| Nations League (Group Stage) | 15 |
| Nations League (Play-offs & Finals) | 25 |
| Confederation & World Cup Qualifiers | 25 |
| Confederation Cup / Continental Final (up to QF) | 35 |
| Confederation Cup / Continental Final (QF onwards) | 40 |
| World Cup Final (up to QF) | 50 |
| World Cup Final (QF onwards) | 60 |
2. The Result (W)
The "W" variable represents the actual outcome of the game.
Regular Time
- Win: 1.0
- Draw: 0.5
- Loss: 0.0
Penalty Shootout (PSO)
- PSO Win: 0.75
- PSO Loss: 0.50
3. Expected Result (We)
This is the probability of a win calculated based on the point difference between the two teams. If a high-ranked team faces a low-ranked team, their "Expected Result" is close to 1. If they win, they gain few points. If they lose, they drop many points.
The formula for Expectation is:
Where dr is the difference in ratings between the two teams.